Tag Archives: politics

Protected: 2012 California and Los Angeles Voter Guide

6 Nov

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Why Barack Obama Is Guaranteed to Win Reëlection in 2012: A Statistical Analysis of Battleground State Polling

24 Oct

Before I became an obscure blogger and show business peon, I was an aspiring academic. I have a B.S. in Cognitive Psychology and have studied many statistical and data modeling techniques for dealing with large multivariate data sets.  I’ve tried to stay fresh in these skills over the years.

As such, I’ve been following the election polls closely.  And playing around a bit with some of the polling data; looking into the methods and models of the various polling outlets.  I’ve discovered a pattern in a few battleground state polls, particularly Ohio, which I can’t find anyone else noticing, at least anyone you can google.  Pollsters are almost uniformly under-weighing a couple unsung but key variables in “likely voter” data.  In my opinion, the correctly weighted model points to a clearer Barack Obama electoral victory than anyone in politics or the media anticipates.  To explain what I mean, look at the latest “poll of polls” from Ohio via the Huffington Post:

Which shows debate-driven fluctuations, and a slight Obama lead, but essentially a race that could go either way.  I’ve taken what raw data I could find and re-weighted it a bit according to my hypothesis, into a new graph below:

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Delicioustacos, the President Urgently Needs Your Help

11 Jun

Fuck you, President Barack Obama.

And First Lady Michelle Obama, and Vice President Joe Biden, and fuck you Anne Marie Habershaw, and David Axelrod; fuck you Jim Messina, fuck you Mary Jane Stevenson; eat a fucking dick Julianna “Cock Destroyer” Smoot; choke on my balls Stephanie “Turd” Cutter; fuck youleta, Katherine Archuleta; Rufuckyou* Rufus Gifford, and on and on and on to all the dozens of jerkoffs who email me CONSTANTLY, EVERY MOTHERFUCKING DAY begging for money for Barack Obama.  A president whom I voted for and supported, but of course, my fucking VOTE doesn’t mean shit since I live in California and unless you actually skullfucked a baby on TV there is no way you’re not carrying this state.  So who gives a shit how I vote.  No, fuckface, your vote means nothing.  We need your motherfucking MONEY.

Fuck all of you because every five god damn minutes I look at my blackberry and see the red asterisk of a new incoming email and I think it’s a new comment on my blog or correspondence from a friend and instead it’s you god damn panhandlers finding some new excuse to hit me up for cash.  If I donate three dollars I get a chance to have dinner with George Clooney,  which– if I’m having dinner with George that’s work for me; I better be getting paid.  Or: RED ALERT! Mitt Romney has outraised Obama for the first time, in fact the first time Barack has been outfunded by an opponent since 2007– well shit, that second part is news to me; I thought you guys were the fucking underdogs.  Are you telling me you had MORE money than the Republicans this whole time? Fuck off then. Look where that got you. I should be marrying my male bride at the Satanic church before retiring home to my mountain of free insurance and unemployment payments by now. Continue reading